Thursday, November 6, 2014

USD Chart

I don't post a whole lot about currencies because it was out of the scope of this blog but, as previously stated, I'm going to start writing about things outside of the junior mining/resource sector because, frankly, not a whole lot to write about in regards to the juniors.

Anyways, I pay close attention to the USD for obvious reasons.

The Fed printing the inflation apocalypse aside (and, pardon me, but where is that all that inflation exactly?) the USD does not actually look bad. A number of the economic indicators are actually very encouraging, but there are people who do cover that stuff better then I. Anyways, heres the weekly chart for the USD.

As you can see, it played around with that resistance/support channel for a while before breaking through with some authority, hitting the next resistance level, bouncing off of that back down to the new support, retesting the resistance level and breaking that (looking at it now, the horizontal line should be a bit lower, my mistake. I thought it would need to test it 3 or 4 times, as it did previously, before it broke through, but just one test then through.

I have decided to use the TSI here because it shows less lag than the RSI and shows a point more clearly that I would like to make. The initial breakthrough and testing of the 87 line was accompanied with quite a surge in the TSI and the second test, which broke the resistance line, was characterized by much less activity in the TSI, having it reside in a much more convincing area then it was when it tested (do you follow me?). May be a bit over bought, but I believe it will settle down as the support is subjected to a quick test or two before continuing up to the next test at 89-90.

Here is the monthly chart, which I think shows the R and S zones more clearly. Used the RSI becuase given the fact that it is a monthly chart it seemed more appropriate. Here, the RSI is much more tame, being almost in the middle of the indicators index despite the break through.

The USD has looked really quite good since 2011, despite the common rhetoric of many writers, commentators and analysts. It is hitting its 5 year high and gives no reason to believe it will not push above it. Of course what do I know..the whole thing could crash and burn tomorrow..but I don't think so.

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